Resilience and risk management in international supply chains: a case study of shipping transportation during the russia and ukraine war

CHAPTER 1: Introduction to Resilience and risk management in international supply chains: a case study of shipping transportation during the russia and ukraine war

1.1 Background of the study

During the Russia as well as Ukraine war on year 2022 has persisted with the one year. This war has adverse influence of the global economy with the various channels like stock market, commodity market as well as oil trade. On the basis of the data unconfined by the oil and gas journals in year 2021 the global oil production has stood by 4.423 billion as well as Russian oil production has been accounted for 12% of the global oil production which make them the second largest producers of oil (ECB Economic Bulletin, 2023). The crude oil prices has been remained with higher consistency which has experienced the short term fluctuations because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions as well as various attitudes of the American as well as European nations.

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The value of the crude oil exhibits the sensitivity to the range of factors such as evenness relationships among the demand and supply that analyse the long term trends of the oil prices. On the other hand, short term changes within the oil prices are impacted by the extreme events as well as monetary factors. The present mainstream events such as research methods do not carry out the influence of the factors in the similar event period. This directly consider the war as the only element in the analysis for the direct calculations. Ukraine-Russia war as well as its resulting chain of the events majorly influence the crude oil market that result in sharp price fluctuation (Khudaykulova et al, 2022). The Russian natural gas industry has struggled with the influence of the decoupling from the EU that lacks the feasible business model to compensate with the loss. The oil sector has to handle weather the sanction better with the major loss of the revenue because of the heavy price mark-downs within the Asian gas market as well as sharp expansion in the cost of shipping oil to Asia.

The countries has suffered with the most from the Western sanctions which has Russia’s state budget within its revenue from the gas and oil reduced in year 2023. This influenced the authorities to consider the serious tax hikes upon the gas as well as oil sector to recompense the loss as well as allow Putin to invest the war within Ukraine. The piped has exports to the Europe has reduced dramatically; Russia also endures to export the major amount of LNG to EU which consequence in major revenue. Decoupling as well as sanctions from the European gas as well as oil market has reduced with the Russian’s capability to use energy as a tool of party-political stress against the Western democratic nations. Russian natural gas giant Gazprom has influenced with cutting ties with the Europe which is the largest market. The termination of the gas supplies to the Europe has happened because of sanctions because of voluntary activities by the Russia (Darvas and Martins, 2022). In spite of the rising has prices, the EU has handled navigating the winter, its procedure as well as find alternatives to long term source of the gas imports.

Innovative energy price transmission dynamic system develops the new system which cover the broad spectrum of the economies. This includes main global players like US, Japan and China. This system also fills the existing gap by allowing the complete analysis of the energy price changes which is trigger by geopolitical events as well as influence global economies. Sector specific analysis explores the effects of the energy price changes to the sector across the studies economy. Sector specific analysis affects the energy price unpredictability on the sector results in the studied economies. This analysis evaluates the sectors which influence the energy crisis that develop targeted as well as efficient policy recommendations (Hosoe, 2023). This practical implication of understanding the vulnerable industry are immense which offer the policymakers with the insight to implement the strategies which reduce the adverse consequence as well as improve the economic resilience.

Russia export the millions barrels of the oil per day because of range of trading partners before the invasion of Ukraine. Less than one third of the oil exports have been imported to the customer through the pipelines. Distributions’ to the EU comprise with the half of the Russia oil exports in the beginning of the 2022. The trade patterns have changes majorly over the course of the year.

1.2 Aim

The main aim is to investigate the impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the economic effects of these sanctions, to differentiate between unsafe areas of trade, focusing on changes in importers, alterations in trade patterns affecting average distance and ship sizes, and the subsequent effects on freight rates.

1.3 Objectives

• To study the economic impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
• To identify the changes in oil importers resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war.
• To analyse how changes in import patterns affect the average distance of oil shipments and ship sizes.
• To assess the impact of these changes on freight rates in the oil shipping industry.

1.3 Structure of research

The research has been separated in the 5 chapters to offer with the impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war .Chapter one focus on the introduction as well as background of the research. This will further postulate the aims and objectives of the study with the significance. Chapter two will offer with the detailed framework of the literature review which supports the topic of the dissertation. The study will focus on the new sanctions on the Russia’s oil exports with the effect on the current year which include the EU bans on the oil imports from Russia. Chapter three highlights the summary of the key traits of the research methodology as well as design employ such as sample identification and criteria. This will also include the data collection methods, strategies used to perform the study as well as data analytics techniques. Chapter 4 will discuss on the various real life examples which highlight the impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war . Chapter five will employ the dissertation by reviewing the limitations, conclusion as well as further research opportunities followed by the references.

1.4 Significance of the study

The influence of the Western sanctions differs among the gas and oil sectors among the LNG and natural gas. There is also major divergence among the negative influence of the Russian oil as well as gas industry. The rising share of the international oil consists of the sanctioned as well as discounted volumes traded by the dodgy intermediaries in the shipping sector (Chen et al, 2023). Policymakers deploy the targeted sanctions which put pressure on the designation of the tanker owners, financial institutes as well as trading house which facilitate in trade. The surge within the US oil as well as gas exports as well as production in the past decade has facilitated the wider energy sanctions. The lifting of the crude oil export ban in the year 2015, the US has become the world’s major oil producer as well as key exporter of the crude oil as well as petroleum products. Russia invasion of the Ukraine in year 2022 has secure as well as reliable source of energy for the world.

Russia war on the Ukraine has created major shifts in international oil trade. Sanctions and embargoes has created the new partitions and walls which has reshaped the export patterns from the Middle East, Latin America as well as Russia. Sanctions upon the oil producing countries like Venezuela as well as Iran have targeting the Russia after the Brutal which has invasion of the Ukraine more significantly. The war as well as associated the multilateral sanctions which put the Russia economy with the substantial economic strain, quick growing expenditure, depreciating ruble, rising inflation as well as tight labour market because of loss of workers (Tank and Ospanova, 2022). Moreover, global geopolitical tension is continued to place significant impact on the world-wide energy market. This study aimed to measure the economic influence of the Ukraine disaster exacerbation of the international energy crisis which offers the actionable policy suggestions.

The significance of the energy as the foundational pillar supports the social as well as economic activities is overstated. The rising energy costs influence the prices of the possessions which make the vital factor in the international economic stability which lead to scarcity of cereals as well as crops in the market. The major oil producing nation face with the major decline in the oil exports because of sanctions incorporated by the US and European Union (Kasuwa, 2022). These sanctions restrict the ability to sell oil in the international market which leads to reduce the revenue from the oil industry. Trade restrictions hinder the ability to engage within the international trade that affect the range of industries. Import dependent industries face the shortage of the essential goods which have trade balance of the country. Russian oil still be shipped through the seaports in the Asian markets with the discounts as well as higher cost. The sector is benefitting the light tax burden which introduces the response to fall in the oil price.

1.5 Rationale of research

The US and partners imposed with the financial sanctions, export control, price cap and crude oil on the Russian oil has combine to make challenging for the Russian war sector to sources the high tech components as well as various other needed intermediate inputs. The reduction in the Russia’s 2022 development has driven by the contraction in exports among other factors. Russia has also pursued the expensive realignment of their supply chain to import the low quality substitutes from the third nations. Russia has also struggle to access the key inputs required of their war because of US and partner sanctions as well as export controls which limits the access to the key technologies (Liadze et al, 2023). In the year of 2023, the development in the Russia’s economy has driven with the rise in the government spending on the war within Ukraine and enhanced the social outlays. The decline reflects the range of factors such as reduction in global oil price. This target sanctions regimes assist in avoid the major Russian Supply shock which market feared after the assault.

The war has escalated geopolitical tension which poised to enhance international crude oil prices which escalate to global energy prices. This raised the energy expenditure for the nations which intensify the cost burden on the organizations as well as influenced the domestic economies. The sustainability and instability issues within the global energy market become rising evident which pose major issue to UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). The complexity of this issue necessitates the complete activities by the global community to make sure the sustainability, constancy as well as convenience of the energy supply in accomplishing the sustainable development initiatives.

As Europe’s present energy structure has faced with the major issues because of supply restrictions like obtaining matching energy supply from the other regions and countries. This evident which geopolitical events have far reaching consequences in the global energy market. The large number of EU member states faced with the energy supply security issues impacted by the multiple economic and political factors. The disruptions in the global energy market placed the stress on the government. Countries with the strong trade, migration as well as financial ties to both the Ukraine and Russia have experienced the direct as well as substantial influences (Kalogiannidis et al, 2022). In contrast to crude oil exports, the Russian had only readdressed the less volumes of the refine oil products from the EU to other nations since the invasion of the Ukraine. This indicates the resending of the refine oil exports to other homelands which can be more motivating for the Russia than the seaborne crude oil.

CHAPTER 2: Literature Review

2.1 Economic impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war

Khudaykulova et al, (2022) assessed that EU has forced unprecedented and massive sanctions in contradiction of the Russia in response with the Russian war of hostility against Ukraine. This sanction measures the imposed on the Russia and lack of incorporation of the Minsk agreement. These sanctions include the targeted restrictive measures, diplomatic measures as well as economic sanctions and visa measures (Klose, 2024). Russia’s decision to invade in the Ukraine disrupts the USA and Europe on the oil trade which enhances the inflationary issues. Oil inefficiency can cause by the time delays, congestions and labour shortage on the transport routes which is the length procedure. This has the similar effect to the tax which result in efficiency loss of the economy. The supply chain issues have the price enhancement in the industries with the rise in the demand as well as shortage of the key resources.

Darvas and Martins (2022) said that the supply chain issues have likely to resolve when the demand in below the ability of the extended period. Customer spending on the products has remained the strong point because of rise in wages as well as tight labour market. On the supply side, the ramping capacity is not convenient because of range of constraints such as pre-pandemic output levels. The present inflationary atmosphere adds more issues for the companies to plan as well as co-operate their production. On the critical note, Mbah and Wasum (2022) said that the adaptation of advance analytics in shipping industry can lead to predict logistics, optimize routes as well as reduce the downtime. A transport company can partner with the tech firm to develop the app based cargo tracking system which exemplifies the cross industry collaboration lead to innovation solutions which streamline operations. Companies are managing customs and trade regulations which expedite cross border transaction and reduce barriers to market expansion.

Steinbach (2023) investigated that Russia-Ukraine war is likely to worsen as well as elongate the international global chain disruptions. Companies as well as industries face with the major exposure from the ways such as food, energy and semiconductors which are probable to be affected. However, Braun et al, (2023) argued that US does not completely reply of the imports of the products as their prices are determined in the international market. Being cut off from the Russia, US is the largest exporter of the crude oil has raised the price of plastics and gasoline. Utilities, transportation, plastic, agriculture, chemicals and metals sectors have the huge influence on the high crude oil prices.

Van Bergeijk (2022) ascertained the fact that Ukraine suffered with the destruction of logistics and transport infrastructure with the oil trade in USA and Europe. Ukraine has to be creative in finding the new trade corridors to sustain the business operations as well as allow the flow of the military aid along with humanitarian. However, Ukraine is facing the significant challenge related to their trade related infrastructure. Shipping via seas is the major route for oil trade which are susceptible to attack. On the other hand, DOĞAN (2022) argued that finding alternative routes for the oil shipping by roads and train via border has led to disrupt with neighbour countries as well as transportation costs. Reduction in the volume of the raw materials is procured by the use of advance algorithms as well as manufacturing apparatus data to optimize the production yield from sourced materials. Using the contract negation levers such as short payment terms in the exchange for the toughened volume discounts and product pricing to assist incentivize suppliers. Exploring the economics of joint venture with the local source of supply chain to reduce the risk associated with the globalization (Kasuwa, 2022). Developing the alternative commodity strategies for the product which encompass the material deemed susceptible because of single source as well as global risk. The logistic company can create the dedicated training programs for its staff to handle the autonomous delivery system to invest in the future capabilities.

2.2 Changes in oil importers resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war

Liadze et al, (2023) said that EU nations have already moving towards the renewable energy, but the Ukraine and Russia war accelerated the trends in year 2022. European Union has imposed sanctions the Russian oil and set deadline for the ending gas imports from the nation. EU has responded to provide technical expertise in assisting them to reliance on Russian fossil fuels. Energy prices have been pulled back from the record highs. Prices are still elevated which holds straining on finance, economic development, business and complicating the efforts to enhance access to electricity. Energy market has faced with the high degree of geopolitical uncertainties (Shah et al, 2022). The purpose of the economic sanctions is to execute the significances of the Russia for its events is to professionally thwart Russia capability to continue their violence. The impact of the global sanctions differs among the oil as well as gas industries. There is also the major disagreement among the negative impact on the gas industries and Russian oil which impact the state budget revenues. The oil industry has struggled with the influence of decoupling from the EU and USA market which lacks the viable business model to compensate for the loss. However, Van Bergeijk, (2022) argued that the oil industry has handled the sanctions with the major loss of revenue because of high value discounts in Asian gas market and rise in cost of the shipping oil to Asia. This has involuntary the establishments to deliberate the tax hikes on the gas and oil sector to compensate the loss as well as allow the Putin to finance the war in the Ukraine.

Hosoe (2023) assessed that sanctions and decoupling from the European oil as well as gas market has reduced the ability of Russia to use energy as a technique of political stress against the western democratic nations. Russia’s natural gas giant Gazprom has mainly suffered from the cutting ties with USA and Europe. This aims at creating the economic and political issues for the EU countries ahead of the 2022. The oil industry has faced sanctions because of infrastructure drawbacks that exist in the gas sector. Russian oil is shipped through the Asian markets with discounts and high cost (Aliu et al, 2023). However, the oil industry is benefitting from the lighter tax burden which introduced in response to fall in price. The oil output has contracted slightly after pre-war period. Russia has produces around 10.5 million barrels evryday of crude oil (Milov, 2024). The Russian oil sector has suffered from the major revenue and profit loss because of EU oil embargo.

2.3 Changes in import patterns affect the average distance of oil shipments and ship sizes and Impact of these changes on freight rates in the oil shipping industry

Alvi (2022) oil shipping industry has faced challenge in everyday operations including cost, obtainability of fuel and rising danger pose by the cyber risk. Ukraine and Russia war has created the burden on the oil shipping sector with the rising supply chain disruption, post congestion as well as crew crisis. The world-wide financial fund warned that war in Ukraine has aggravated with the high delivery costs and their inflationary impacts high for lengthier. The price of shipping vessel in the routes raises the cost of shipping bulk commodities. The lengthier distance has enhanced the demand for the tankers which lead to high freight rates.

In accordance with the views of Deng et al, (2022) major influence of the war has been on the vessels operating within the sea as well as trading with Russia. Many vessels has been trapped in the ports and Ukraine and Russian faced with the uncertain future which unable to leave the vessels. On the other hand, Moldashev (2023) said that vessel tracking software is significant. This innovation shares the principles and functions across various solutions. This includes tracking vessel and offer real time location data that can be assessed by the remote firms like nearby vessels. With the various options, stakeholders can choose solutions modified with their needs which facilitate in effective tracking of vessel positions and execution of business activities.

Astrov et al, (2022) described in the beginning of April 2022, various merchant vessels has been trapped within Ukraine ports. Vessels in the wider areas are in the risk from rocket attacks, sea mines and threat of detention. 84 merchants’ ships remained with the 500 seafarers on the board (Impact of Ukraine war on global shipping, 2022). The seafarers have deported with the operating level reduced, local ship keepers were replaced and ships are cold lay-up in board. Nevertheless, Estrada and Koutronas (2022) argued that the extended routes enhance the costs for the shipping nations. These expenses are passed on the clients by high freight rates.

According to the views of Orhan (2022) relying on the single suppliers can be risky this is because of geopolitical events, natural disasters and unforeseen situations which can lead to supply chain vulnerabilities. Diversification ensures the alternative option, reduce risk and enhance supply chain resilience. A diversified supplier protects fluctuations which provide company with the flexibility to direct with doubts without co-operating on the processes. Implementation of diversity in the supply chain can drive in affordability and position the organization at the forefront of the sector trends. On the other hand, Van Bergeijk (2022) defined that managing the relationships with various suppliers can be resource extensive with the limited employees and capacity. Coordination and communication is becoming more time consuming and complex. Different regions have varying standards, regulations as well as customer preferences. Adapting the products to meet the local needs while keeping the steadiness in the quality standards is demanding (Fouad 2024). Geographical distance can outcome in long transportation tome and enhance the exposure to environment conditions. This can lead to product spoilage, deterioration and harm during transit.

Braun et al, (2023) ascertained the fact that Russian fleet has also been denied with major oil shipping services. As large number of ports have been withdrawn bunkering services for Russian owned vessels (Jagtap et al, 2022). Europe and United States sanction pose the major compliance issue for the shipping insurers. Various western firms have opted the cease trade with Russia which has created the complicated as well as uncertain legal situations for contracts such as insurance. Nevertheless, Darvas and Martins, (2022) said that the prolonged conflict have major impact on political and economic elements which reshape international trade in energy as well as other commodities. Expansion on Russian oil has pushed the cost, fuel and pushes the ship-owners to use the alternative fuels.

2.4 literature gap

There is a need to investigate more on the way sanctions will reshape the international oil industry and geopolitical alliance. There is also limited research on the cost benefit analysis on the shipping distance, time and environmental impact of these on shipping routes because of uncertainties. : Insufficient analysis exists on innovations within the shipping industry, port infrastructure to analyse the rising volume ships. There is a limited understanding of analysis of the freight rates in various areas as well a ship size which impact on the oil shipping industry. Research is lacking on how particular regions are implementing oil import patterns as well as their broader implications.

CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research strategy/type

In the present study, the researcher has been using the qualitative research method which purposes to gather the comprehensive understanding of human behaviour using secondary data. Qualitative data is significant is determining the particular frequency of the characteristics. This allow statistician to form the parameters by the large data sets. This is a key to get the useful insight for the textual data, find subtle patterns as well as figure out the rich context. The data collected offer the investigator with the detailed analysis on impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The data collected through qualitative research conclude the series of findings. Qualitative research provides the flexible approach which allows the investigator to adapt the questions. This type of analysis provides the insights in the underlying reasons people act the way they do. This data is significant for developing the testable hypotheses to analyse.

Qualitative research methods collect the information using open ended questions. This is plan which guides researcher in actions and helps to accomplish the research purposes. Emerging the research approach helps the researcher to explain the research questions and communicate the findings. The methodology details the approach of the investigation to ensure the valid and reliable outcomes which address the aim as well as objectives.

3.2 Research approach

In the current study on impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict the researcher has selected inductive approach because of qualitative nature. Inductive approach is based on the predetermined structure on the set of framework. Inductive approach majorly uses the detailed reading of the secondary data to derive the themes, concepts and models. Selecting the inductive approach through thematic analysis for the research determine the goals of the study to gain the understanding of the concepts which focus on testing the hypothesis. The major benefit of using inductive approach is that it allows making the various assumptions. This makes examining the patterns as well as develops new theories (Pandey and Pandey, 2021). This is a flexible plan which allows the investigator to alter the research theme as well as approaches on the base of facts they collect. Inductive research provides a broad view of the data collection by emphasizing on theories which are already set. Inductive approach develops the new concepts and theories useful in offering the new program. This method provides with the original thoughts and new perspective that deductive approach may not provide.

This is a plan as well as process that comprise of steps of the comprehensive expectations to comprehensive approaches of data gathering, analysis as well as explanation. Qualitative data needs an inductive approach to data analysis. This place the major emphasis on the methods used to gather data. This method also places the less focus on the analytical techniques for the interpretation of the information.

3.3 Research philosophy

In the existing study, the investigator has made the use of interpretivism philosophy. This method allowed the researcher with the deep analysis of the people perceptions and beliefs in the secondary data which facilitates the better understanding of their experiences. This theory is based on the assumption that the reality is subjective, socially and multiple constructed. This is a theoretical position as well as research method which analyse the actions in the society on the foundation of specific value system of the culture within qualitative method. This method helps the researcher in producing data which is high in validity, as interpretivism approach emphasize on the motivation of the research. This method considers the social contexts as well as interpersonal dynamics. This helps in dealing with the developing the knowledge which requires to be handled as researcher might have the range of assumptions about the nature of the philosophy and skills assist to understand the expectations (Verma et al, 2024). This deals with the nature, sources as well as growth of the knowledge. This is belief about the methods in which the information must be collected, examined as well as utilized.

3.4 Data collection

In the present research, the analyst has selected secondary data by using already existing data. This summarizes to enhance the overall efficiency of the study. This method allows researcher to gain insight as well as draw conclusion. This saves time as well as resources which allow building the existing expertise and knowledge. The most popular method to gather the secondary data is books, journals, internet, online papers and many more existing sources. This is based in the tested information which is previously analysed as well as filtered. This aims in gaining the broad understanding of the subject matter and is quick procedure as the information is already accessible. The investigator should also explore the specific data (Newman and Gough, 2020). This method is beneficial in many sources from which the specific data can gathered and used. Secondary data is less expensive as well as less time consuming as information needed is easily accessible. The information that is gathered through secondary research offers research to form hypothesis. This method is completed within the few weeks on the basis of objective of the study.

Secondary data has been used to analyse the process of gathering, measuring as well as evaluating the accurate insight of the study by using standard. This is referred as procedure of collecting the information on the particular purpose. This can be used to answer the research objectives to take informed decisions to enhance the research outcomes. Selection of data collection methods highly depends on the research questions and type of the study initiated (Dubey and Kothari 2022). On the other hand, secondary data collection has already been gathered by someone else who is readily accessible. The information is less expensive as well as quick to obtain that primary data collection method.

3.5 Data analysis

In the present research, the investigator has selected thematic analysis. This is a technique to analyse the qualitative information that include interpretation through the set of data as well as making patterns in the sense of the data to find the themes. This is a dynamic procedure of the reflective in which the investigator’s subjective knowledge helps in making the sense of the information. This method allows the researcher to look at the set of data which contain various qualitative sources which pull the broad themes running through the entire set of data (Zhang, Gong and Brown, 2023). This method offers with the flexible method in analysing the data which allow the investigator with the diverse methodological backgrounds to participate in this kind of analysis.

Thematic analysis includes extracting the insights from the data to take informed decisions. The flexibility of the research design allow the investigator which the multiple theories which can be applied in the process of various epistemologies. Thematic analysis is the procedure of gaining the raw data and converts this information useful for decision making. The data analysis strategies are used to gather insights from the datasets which is used to take operational decisions. This is a science of analysing the data to conclude the information to take informed decisions and expand knowledge of the range of subjects. This comprises of subjective the information to operations. Data analysis helps investigator to mitigate risk by recognizing the risk factors as well as allow proactive measures to reduce the potential negative influences.

3.6 Ethical consideration

Ethical consideration within the research is the set of philosophies which guide the investigator in the investigation designs as well as practices. Research ethics matters for the scientific honesty, dignity, human rights as well as association among the society. These practices ensure that the people in this research is informed, voluntary as well as safe for the investigation topic (Dzwigol, 2022). The researcher has respected the confidentiality of the data provided by the authors of secondary data in ethical and legal manner. Maintaining the confidentiality need safeguarding the information which the people have disclosed in the relationship of trust that this will not be disclosed to other without their permission and used in unethical way. The researcher has credited and recognized the original authors who have spent efforts, time and resources to produce the research. This shows the respect as well as appreciation for the intellectual property rights of the others and avoids the plagiarism which is illegal and unethical use of someone else research without the proper attribution. This promotes the culture of collaboration and learning as it motivates the sharing and building of ideas while maintaining the integrity as well as originality of the work.

3.7 Research limitations

Research limitations are the practical shortcomings which are outside the control of scholar. Data quality and accuracy is significant for the analysis which might affect the reliability and validity of the results. Poor data quality as well as accuracy can lead to biases, errors and misinterpretation which can undermine the recommendations as well as conclusion. Researcher bias leads to underestimate the true values which compromise the validity of the findings. Such information might impact the way information is gathered, measured and interpreted. The research confined with the specific time period might not gathered the broad variations which limits the results of the study. The issues of time constraints in the research procedure include the need for the simultaneous data gathering activities and influence on the research planning. This also impacts the encryption procedure where the issues lies in handling the data security while reducing the execution time as well as packet delay.

Timeframe

Activities	Timeframe
Research strategy	3 weeks
Research philosophy	3 weeks
Research approach	2 weeks
Data collection	4 weeks
Data Analysis	5 weeks
Research Limitations	1 week

CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND FINDINGS

4.1 Economic impact of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war

The insights from this study have drawn attention to influence of the Western sanction differ in the oil as well as gas sectors and natural gas. There is a major discrepancy among the undesirable influence of the sanctions upon the Russian gas as well as oil sectors. The Russian natural has sector gas struggled with the impact of compensate for the loss. The oil sector has handled to weather the sanctions which the major loss of the revenue because of heavy price discounts within the Asian gas market that enhance the cost of shipping oil to Asia. For instance, Russia state budget is suffered from the western sanctions which saw the revenues from gas and oil which decline in 24% in year 2023 as compared with 2022 (Milov, 2024). This has enhanced the establishments to deliberate the serious tax rambles on the gas as well as oil sector to recompense for the loss. This allow Putin to finance the war within Ukraine. On the other hand, the cheeped has exports to Europe has decrease dramatically, Russia nations to distribute the major amount of LNG to EU unabated which result in major income. The LNG exports are untaxed so that administration did not receive incomes from this.

These findings demonstrate that sanctions as well as decoupling from the EU gas and oil markets has also majorly reduced Russian capabilities to use energy as a instrument of political pressure in contradiction of the Western democratic nations. For example, the termination of gas provisions to EU has showed because of sanctions which is because of the voluntary movements by Russia. In the mid-2022, Gazprom cut off the gas supplies to Europe with furthermost of the export pipeline routes which evidently aimed in creating the financial as well as political issues for EU nations gaining of the 2022-2023 winter season. In spite of the rising gas prices, the EU handled to navigate the winter and find alternative long period foundations of gas imports. This enabled the Europe to free them from Russian piped gas imports while impressive sanctions upon Gazprom.

A main contribution of this study has been to increase our understanding of portion of war aggression against Ukraine, the Russia has provided 45% of EU natural gas imports in its gas provisions. Russia entirely cut their distributions to Eastern as well as Germany regions where the gas beforehand made up over 20% of the energy supplies which is most significant supplier of natural gas. Eastern as well as Central Europe has high number of gas intensive commodity producers which hit hardest by the higher gas prices. Sector consumption account for 27% of the total EU gas usage along with the high amount for Germany as well as Eastern Europe (EU response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, 2024). Russia has enhanced military attacks on Ukraine energy system which majorly undermine the security of the nation’s power supply. In light of Russia’s continued attacks, safeguard power system as well as enhancing electricity security has significant priority for Ukraine (Khudaykulova et al, 2022). The international energy agency (IEA) has enhanced the relationship with the Ukraine.

The findings across this study have delivered strong evidence for sanctions imposed by the EU as well as their partners upon the Russia’s financial system has condensed the ability to finance the war. The EU as well as their member states stand together in their resolute support for the Ukraine as well as Russia military aggression. The new sanction targets high value industries of the Russian economy like finance, energy and trade which make challenging to circumvent EU sanctions. This include the ban on the reloading services for Russia liquefied natural gas on the EU territory with the aim of transhipment operations to third nations. This also include a ban on new investments for the completion of LNG project under the construction. The ban of the port has access as well as provision of services to vessels which contribute in Russia’s war. The EU and their members’ states strong convict Russia’s ruthless war of violence against the Ukraine. This also condemn Belarus participation in Russia’s military violence.

These research findings have led to a deeper European council and Union has been get-together regular discuss on the situation in Ukraine from various viewpoints. EU leaders demanded the repeatedly that Russia directly terminate the military actions with the forces as well as military equipment from Ukraine. On the other hand, EU has enormously extended sanctions against the Russia by conducting the major number of entities as well as persons to the sanctions list. The EU is dedicated to endure show commonality as well as offer the immigrants fleeing the war in Ukraine the nations hosting them (Darvas and Martins, 2022). The European council condemned Russian indiscriminate attack in contradiction of civilians which commended the Russia to stop the organised missile attacks against the Ukraine energy infrastructure. Though, the EU has adopted the number of sanctions in response to Russia’s war of aggression against the Ukraine. The procedures are designed to weaken the Russia’s financial base which divest of their critical technologies as well as majorly curtailing the aptitude to wage war. The EU has approved sanctions against the Iran, Belarus as well as North Korea for the involvement in the Russian aggression against the Ukraine.

These recent study have begun to provide insight into 2 years on from Russian invasion of Ukraine trade within the energy products among the Russia as well as European Union which has mainly vanished. Russia has redirected oil exports to Asia but has not been accomplished to replace Europe for their natural gas exports. For example, EU reduced importations of Russian fuels from the high of $16 billion per month within 2022 to $1 billion by the end of the 2023. The influence of this evaluation on Russia’s trade equilibrium has muted. On the other hand, Russia does not enjoys the high export earning which is determined by high prices.

4.2 Changes in oil importers resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war

A major contribution of this study has been to increase understanding of EU energy segment arrived in the unexplored territory with the Russia’s full scale incursion of Ukraine. This has brought the interrogation of the EU’s safety of energy supply in the sharp focus. EU introductions half of gas from Russia as well as is largest share of oil and coal confronted with the double challenges and keep prices at remotely affordable levels. EU energy security is attained by substituting the importation fossil fuels with the nationally produced renewable energy as well as improve energy effectiveness with the EU aiming to world’s climate neutral continent by year 2025 (Steinbach, 2023). The diversification of gas supplies as well as working with the reliable partners plays a significant role in ensuring the safety of the supply for European people in the short to medium term till the objective of complete decarbonisation.

The research findings have led to a deeper understanding of energy crisis has taught the European energy market with the great share of Russian gas as well as oil imports in Europe’s energy combination which has created over dependence on the sole supplier. This ensure better diversity of energy imports which suddenly gets cut off with the effects felt less acutely. Trading with more stable and predictable energy partners reduce the risk of malicious disruptions to the energy supply. The combination of the more reliable pipeline as well as LNG has been vital in overcoming the EU dependence of Russia energy sector. The US has become the main energy supplier in year 2023 which represent 19% and 30% of the total has imports (In focus: EU energy security and gas supplies, 2024). However, EU players has been inadvertently out bidding each other on the international energy market with the attempt to secure supplies.

These findings demonstrate that EU energy platform offered better results in aggregating the demand and coordinating the buying of natural gas which attract to strong interest from market players. These tenders are incorporated to support the customers and sellers in analysing the long trading partnership. Russia’s production as halved, however, the gas production remained constant (Mbah and Wasum, 2022). Russia majorly cut off both gas and oil supplies to former Soviet republics. The European Union relied of the Russia for around 38 percentage of their imported natural gas. The EU objective to mitigate coal consumption and also lower greenhouse gas emissions. The reduction of domestic sources of energy which dependence on Russia. Europe needs to undertake the strategy to reduce over reliance on the single source. EU dependence on Russia for the natural gas has profound impact the freedom of action of specific European state which enhanced erode European sovereignty.

The findings across this research have provided strong evidence for the rise of China and India are the main buyers of the Russian oil trades which has been the most dramatic influence in the sanctions packages. As oil is majorly fungible commodity, the Russia has majorly pivoted to Asia to sell the oil spurned by Europe. These countries have previously been the main buyers which is replaced by India and China in 2023. Russian has efficiently employed techniques by Venezuela and Iran while facing comparative sanctions. India have capitalize on the price cap which result in reduction in market access for the Russian Oil. Russian gas exports has not been subject to the heavy sanctions by the western nations, restrictions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology have major long term influence on the Russia’s future production capability.

In has been assessed that various countries have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which have sought to impose the sanctions against the country. These sanctions are majorly targeting Russia’s profits in energy industry. The US, UK, Canada and Australia are major countries which announced the sanctions against Russian oil imports (Chen et al, 2023). The US played more vital role in the effort to reduce Russia’s oil revenue while limiting the influence on international oil price with expertise in administrating financial sanctions. However, the US has assisted European efforts by diplomatic engagement with LNG importers by offering technological and manufacturing support. US policymakers played vital role in the efforts to reduce Russian oil profits with little cost possible to customers around the world.

4.3 Changes in import patterns affect the average distance of oil shipments and ship sizes

The insights from this research have drawn attention to new sanctions upon the Russia’s oil exports has originate into the effect in the current month which include the EU prohibitions upon the seaborne oil importations from the price caps on the Russian oil in response to Russia continuing war of violence within the Ukraine. The EU prohibition on the seaborne importation of Russia crude oil has come into the dynamism which forbidden on improve oil products (Thangavel and Chandra, 2024). The price cap instrument is intended to confine the Russia’s oil incomes by covering the price which consent the supply of Russian oil in the world-wide market which circumvent the spikes in global oil prices. This offers with original valuation of the impact of the new sanction on the worldwide oil prices as well as Russian oil exports.

These findings demonstrate that Russia has redirected the oil supply the EU embargo as well as price gap arrived in force. Russia disseminated almost 8 million containers of the oil with the trading partners before the invasion of Ukraine. However, less than one third of the oil exports has been transported to the customer with pipelines. Delivery to EU account with the half of the Russia’s oil exports in the initial of 2022, but the trading patterns has changed majorly (The Future of Russian Energy Exports under Sanctions, 2024). Export to China, India and Turkey has also reduced when the new sanction entered in the force which joined the oil price cap mechanism. On the other hand, following the initial slump the crude oil exports has been recovered. This has reflected the further redirection of the crude oil from the sanction nations to non-sanctions nations with the major amount of Russian crude oil. The Russian export volumes of the seaborne crude oil has turned to be remain same from the submission of the crude oil sanctions while comparing this with the export volumes in 2022.

A major involvement of this research has been to increase the understanding of global oil prices has been exhibited limited volatility in spite the launch of EU crude oil embargo as well as crude oil price cap. However, oil supply have majorly contributed in the oil prices which has highlighted the negative influence on the small influence on the volumes of Russian seaborne crude oil exports as compare with the primary expectations of more major declines. Other factors has plays a significant role in high production in Nigeria and Kazakhstan which is sustained by oil supply during the period (Deng et al, 2022). These development stands in contrast to the oil price evolution in the outcome of Russian offensive of Ukraine concern regarding the global oil supply shortage is the major driver of spike in the oil price during 2022 amid fear of disruptions to oil supplies from Russia. The major aims of the crude oil export from the Russia to Europe has sold out with the large discount to Brent crude within the Russian invasion of Ukraine as lots of European companies has abstained from purchasing it. For instance, immediately after the incorporation of the new sanctions on the Russian crude oil discount has increased. On the other hand, the market price of the Russian Eastern Siberia Ocean (ESPO) grade oil has transferred to Asia which is adjacent to global oil prices along with this that stayed in the level above the oil price cap.

The findings across this research have delivered strong evidence for comparing with the crude oil exports, Russian has readdressed the limited volumes if the refined oil products from the EU to other nations in the attack of Ukraine. This indicate the redirection of refine oil export to other nations which has been more challenging for Russia in the redirection of seaborne crude oil (Liadze et al, 2023). India and China has attracted the large amount of the crude oil from Russia are net exporters of the large range of the refine oil products. Russian export of the refine oil products has enhanced which drive by flow to Asia and Africa by implementation of sanctions. On the critical note, since Russia has also offset the reduction within the imports by EU member states by the increasing in the exports of Africa as well as other undisclosed destinations. The European diesel market has remained right in spite of the EU bolstering the refine oil imports. The EU has enhanced its imports of the refined oil products majorly towards the end of the year which reflect more trade with Asia and Middle East which has frontload of fuel oil as well as diesel imports from Russia ahead. Europe dependence on the Russian diesel has created the persistent regarding the supply shortage which reflect the sharp increase in the rise among crude oil and diesel prices. The global fall in the diesel price from the recovery in inventory contributed in the decline of crack spreads.

These research finding have led to a deeper understanding of the influence of the sanctions upon the international oil market has appear. The price cap on the crude oil has major impact on the Russian crude oil exports in the incoming years. The sanctioning associates aims to keep the level of the cap at least 5% below the market price for the Russian oil (The Future of Russian Energy Exports under Sanctions, 2024). The future reassessment of the price level test on the sanctions has working as intended for Russia prohibiting the exports of oil to nations that join the cap mechanism. Russia has announced the reduction in the oil production in response to the incorporation of the sanction corresponding to global crude oil supply management (Orhan, 2022). The embargo has added with the extra price stress in the accurate European diesel market with the EU having to bid for barrels of diesel from the US as well as Middle East in major competition with the providers traditional patrons.

4.4 Impact of changes on freight rates in the oil shipping industry

This recent study have begun to provide insight into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to serve restrictions on Russian oil from the West. Shifting trade dependencies dynamics present in international crude market has underscore the broad trends within the Russia’s trade connections. Russia is becoming less economical reliant of the West and more dependent of China. This raises the possibility that the China’s crude oil imports might moderate in the maintenance season which depend on the tentative signs of the recovery in the world’s largest economy (Astrov et al, 2022). This has been noted that China’s crude imports in the initial quarter has been secured in the time when the international oil prices are below the current level.

A major influence of this research has been to increase an understanding of vessel shipping is very much capital intensive sector where some assets are possessed with the existing variability in the cost base. Asset management is the vital component in the commercial success of the container shipping lines which is primary asset based. The asset management decisions for the shipping line comprise of equipment management to reduce the operating costs as well as downtime which enhance the service life, enhance equipment safety, mitigate potential liabilities along with this reduce costs for the better volume management. Container shipping lines challenge in enhancing the efficient asset management program for the fleet to operate. However, the most significant challenge which the shipping companies has faced is because of Ukraine and Russia war (Cifuentes-Faura, 2022). This unleashed the unpredictable challenge on the international shipping sector which disrupt trade flows, supply chain as well as logistic operations.

The findings have led to a deeper understanding of shipping industry has crossroads of the global trade, commerce, commodities market and international politics are the variables which keep the maritime sector afloat. However, the changes in geopolitical tensions, trade patterns as well as trade disputed has influence the oil shipping volumes, investment decisions as well as freight rates. For instance, the Ukraine-Russia war has forced Europe to diversify their energy demands from Russia shipping their Ural grade oils as well as natural gas to India and China. Container carrier tend to underperform financially comparing with the other logistic sector (Alvi, 2022). This weak performance is linked with the combination of the capital intensive operations as well as high risk linked with revenues.

It has been analysed that for container trade, the influence of the oil prices on the container freight rated estimated in the larger period of sharply rising as well as more volatile oil prices as compared to the period of stable and low oil prices. In the view of the heavy reliance in the maritime transport on the oil for propulsion the analytics work on the influence of the energy prices on the maritime freight rates in rising fuel costs which might lead to proportionately high maritime transportation expenses for developing nations.

This has been assess from the literature that the oil sipping sector heavily relied in the fossil fuels which make it the largest customer of petroleum based products. These ships propel by the fossil fuels which discharge fuel, oil and waste in the water which emit exhaust fumes in the atmosphere. This result in multiple environment challenges like interference with biodiversity, air pollution, endangerment as well as extinction of range of aspects. For example, the burning of heavy fuel oil release harmful pollutants as well as greenhouse gas which contribute in climate changes as well as pose health risk to coastal communities as well as marine life. Liquefied natural gas emerge with the leading option for greener shipping practices which garden endorsement (Zhabenko, 2022). LNG reduce the environmental influence to enhance the air quality in the marine environment. This contribute to enhance the air quality as well as reduce the health risk for marine life as well as coastal communities.

From this study, it has been evaluated that methanol dual fuel vessels provide major environmental advantages like lower particulate matter emissions and CO2 emissions which contribute in combating climate change as well as enhance air quality. Nevertheless, transitioning to this technology needs challenges such as fuel availability and compliance with regulatory laws. In spite of these challenges, the environmental benefits as well as long term sustainability projects which make methanol dual fuel vessels as a compelling choice for the steering container shipping subdivision for the greener as well as more environmental friendly future (Shah and Gedamkar, 2022). As the sector continues to navigate the path for the green shipping practices, handling challenges as well as promoting the awareness of advantages of alternative fuels is significant in accomplishing the environmental friendly container shipping industry. Aligning with the evolving regulations as well as handling concerns related to the fuels can pave the path for the green as well as more environmental friendly container shipping industry. Focusing on the sustainability as a supervisory principle will enhance the sector’s future which ensure the economic development.

4.5 SWOT Analysis of sanctions from the USA and Europe on the oil trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war

Sanctions as well as export controls damage the Russian economy which limits the access to finance the products required to wage their war. Oil prices are increased because of war which raise inflation as well as reduce economic development. Collaborative efforts to reduce the influence of the sanction might enhance the economic alliance which promote better global cooperation. Geopolitical tensions might influence the international economy by destabilizing supply chains, disrupt trade flows, tighten financial conditions as well as intensify the global inflation.

Strengths Economic Burden on Russia Promotion of Alternative Energy Sources	Weaknesses Global Oil Supply Disturbances Impact on Global Economy
Opportunities Technological Innovation Market opportunities	Threats Lasting Geopolitical Instability Global Economic Impact

4.6 summary of findings

By summing up, it has been analysed that the war in Ukraine and Russia upended the economic disruptions. This conflict and sanctions have disrupted the exports from the regions for commodities such as oil and gas. The high dependence on the Russia energy supplies underline the susceptibility of the EU energy safety. Geopolitical risk has the major influence on the energy security in various regions. This is significant to establish the stable multilateral international relations.

CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION

As the major producer of the oil as well as natural gas exporter, Russia’s war with the Ukraine has majorly influenced the energy market. The aim analysis of the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war on the oil industry has assisted various sectors in developing both short as well as long term strategies. This create the framework of the event analysis method on the basis of multiresolution causality testing (EMC). Russia-Ukraine war as well as its consequent chain of events has adversely influenced the global economy with the various challenges like stock market, commodity market as well as trade. The energy market is majorly hit by the global war (Khudaykulova et al, 2022). The sanctions include beleaguered restrictive measure such as economic sanctions, individual sanctions, visa measures as well as diplomatic measures. The impartial of the economic sanctions is to implement with the major penalties on the Russia for its movements as well as to competently thwart Russia’s capability to endure the aggression.

As a part of the economic sanctions, the EU has compulsory enforced with the number of export as well as import restrictions on Russia. The list of the disqualified products are considered to improve the negative influence of the sanctions on the Russian economy. The price cap applies to the petroleum oils, seaborne crude oil which invent in export from Russia. EU nations has well-known the level of cap in close association with the price cap partnership. The present value may have been corrected in the future to reflect the market development as well as technical modifications. This choice has limit the price flows driven by the market conditions as well as reduce the revenues Russia earning from oil for illegal war of aggression against the Ukraine. The EU has banned the EU vessel from transporting Russian crude oil as well as petroleum product to third nations (Darvas and Martins, 2022). This also prohibited the sections of the technological assistance, financial assistance as well as brokering facilities.

The sanctions introduced the compliance regulations to sustain the implementation of the oil price cap as well as clamp down on the side-stepping. The strengthened evidence sharing instrument allow better understanding of vessels as well as entitles conduct deceptive practices. Ship to ship transfer is used to conceal the original destination of the cargo as well as automatic identification system (AIS) manipulation of transporting crude oil as well as gas products. AIS is signifies as an automatic tracking system which is used as transceivers on ships utilized by the vessel traffic services.

Russia’s macroeconomics performance has suffered because of the war as well as its influence on the US and partners sanctions along with economic measures. Russia is experiencing the rising fiscal stress because of rising expenditure as well as influence of the sanctions on their revenues. Russia’s policy replies to the approvals are more and more limited for Russia. The United States have untaken the innovative measures to spare the international economy from the harm from Russia’s war (Chen et al, 2023). However, the war as well as associated multifaceted sanctions put Russia’s economy under the substantial economic strain which contribute in the rising expenditure, reduce inflation, depreciating rubble as well as tight labour market which reflect the loss of the employees.

The US and partners imposition of the export controls, financial sanctions, EU crude oil embargo as well as price cap on the Russian oil has combined the Russian war sector to source the key high tech element as well as other required intermediate inputs. Russia has pursued the expensive realignment of their supply chain to import low quality substitutes from the third countries. Russia has also struggle to access the key inputs required for the war because of US sanctions and export controls which limits the access to key technologies. However, Russia cannot domestically manufacture the advancement with the US. The US imposes sanctions hold these factors accountable in measuring further constrain Russia’s capability to gain technology as well as equipment to wage their war.

Development in Russian economy has driven by the rise in government spending on the war in Ukraine. Moreover, the impacts of two key measures such as price cap and EU embargo has assisted in reducing Russian export earnings by forcing the sizeable discounts on Russian exporters in the market segment where EU embargo low demand. This decline in revenue enhance stress on the Russia’s fiscal balance which offer gas and oil tax revenue as a key sources of Russia’s revenue (Orhan, 2022). The consequences of Russia war has forced to retreat global market which make it more vulnerable to demand changes in small group of partners. Pulling back to the international markets also restrict the Russia’s capability to access the new innovation as well as ideas.

The price cap upon the Russian oil aims to curtain the Russia’s profits which keep the oil supply stable in forcing Russia to sell their oil cheaper. Russia has received the windfall profits on the oil price spike which create their own war of choice. This persistent price spike in reducing the global oil supply that has been terrible for the low and middle income nations which rely on the Russian oil. The price cap policy work to handle the oil market stability by possession the Russian exports to market which limits the Russian capability to profit on that oil. The price cap works with requiring the scale of Russia oil which include organizations like flagging firms on the basis of alliance nations to be retailed under the price cap levels. Global partners and treasury works to impose the price cap related to the sanctions on entities as well as recognize vessels as a blocked property for resounding the Russian oil price overhead the price cap.

India and China has reduced to the condemn Russia impose sanction in the war which is major purchaser of Russian crude oil as well as imposed sanctions. Turkey is also emerged as a to purchaser of Russian energy crude oil as market might lead to follow suit as well as ramp up Russian energy introductions at discounted price. The new round of restriction as well as price caps has been put in place on the higher value Russian refined oil products such as cooking fuel and diesel. India’s oil purchase from the Russia has raise the efforts by the Ukraine and its allies to persuade nations around the world to distance them from the Russia. India has started buying the Urals crude selling on the discount after the invasion of Ukraine (Shah and Gedamkar, 2022). After the assault of Ukraine, the United States has highlighted the sadness about the India purchasing the Russian oil which made it clear that accept India as a basis crude from Russia. The India government has fortified the continuous purchase of crude oil from Russia. India’s factories have faced the issue in trying to finance these buying as sanctions on Russian banks are inspiration payment communications.

The influence of the long routes is the most significant in tanker transport with the Russian oil smooth to India and China at discount in spite of make the short haul to Europe (Mbah and Wasum, 2022). On the critical note, Western countries have changed the way from importing the Russian crude as well as oil products which started importing more crude oil from Saudi Arabia, US and refined oil products such as diesel from India. The combination of the higher demand for the customer products as well as various supply chain interruptions sent rates as well as profits to unparalleled levels in the last two years. In the run up the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as subsequent sanction has tanker rates started to increase rapidly. Based on the present tight market dynamics, tanker rates are set to remain very strong. Oil market always remain the subject to volatile and uncertainty in the oil prices.

Faced with the disaster in Ukraine, the EU has improved the sanctions against the Russia to disruption free of their requirement on the Russian fossil fuels to stem the current of resources revenue to the Russian war machine. The EU re-justification policy has efficiently reduced the whole bloc’s dependence on the Russian energy. The EU imposition of sanction target the Russia offering an opportunities for the Russian fossil fuels to flow in other regions. The EU came with the gas and oil imports which continuing mainly with the pipeline to Eastern Europe (Cifuentes-Faura, 2022). The oil producing nations of the Saudi Arabia and UAE are buying the oil from Russia. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, both India and China are enhancing the quantity of the crude oil import from the Russia. India that factually imported the little crude oil from the Russia since of the geographical distance which quickly step up the importation since the invasion of Ukraine. In the development, UAE and Saudi Arabia are the major oil producing nations which buy crude oil from the Russia.

The coordination is designed to enhance the petroleum revenues. In the beginning of the Ukraine and Russia crisis, the UAE and Saudi Arabia has imported the Russian crude oil as well as petroleum products which are trading at discount to global oil prices because of the influence of economic sanctions to supply the domestic petroleum consumption. This has allowed them to sell their crude oil in high prices on oversea areas. While some western governments has banned the imports of the crude oil, diesel, petrol as well as jet fuel which originate in Russia which still import refine oil products produced from the Russian cruse in other countries such as China, India, Turkey and UAE (Alvi, 2022). The refine loopholes enhance the demand for the Russian crude oil which allow high sales in terms of the volume. The price of the Russian crude oil do not collapse in the international market within the Western sanctions.

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusion

Form the above dissertation it has been concluded that, the sanctions of Europe and USA has significant impact on the overall operation and process of the Oil trade industry due to Russia-Ukraine war. The sanctions of Russian and Ukraine war was restricted the financial institutions to provide the assistance to the oil markets refuse to accept the finance transactions of Russia such as clearing payments, opening letter of credits etc. The oil industry directly targeted by the sanctions but also has crescendo impact of self-sanctioning the supply chain of the oil all the way for marketing, financing and shipping. Due to sanctions, the oil sector faced immersive shifts in the flow of trade and sharp adjustment in the price differentials to demonstrate shifts in the exports of the Russian crude.

In addition, after sanctions to make their barrels more attractive the oil companies of the Russian offer sweeteners to the purchaser. Self-sanctioning intensifies over the coming weeks leading to minimization in the production and supply chain disruption at the large level. EU has imposed massive and unparalleled sanctions against Russia which have significant impact on the overall trading of the oil and crude. The sanctions directly impact the supply chain of the oil industry. The supply chain challenge has the price improvements in the oil sectors with the increase in demand and scarcity of the major resources. Due to sanctions, the crude oil prices reveal the sensitivity to the several of elements and equilibrium relationships in between demand and supply. After imposition of the sanctions, the oil sector also faced the challenge of disturbance in the transport and logistics infrastructure which ultimately negatively impact on the overall success and profitability. From the literature review, it has been also summarize that Ukraine also faced the critical issue to relevant to the trade infrastructure. The major route of the shipping of oil to another country is sea and it inclined to attack due to major sanctions.

Apart from this, the Russia-Ukraine war resultant in various modifications in the importers of the oil. Due to war, the European Union imposed the sanctions on the oil market of the Russian and set timelines for the imports on the ending gas. The oil industry struggled with the influence of decoupling from the USA and EU market which lacks the viable model to compensate for the loss. The sanctions directly influence the changes in the patterns of the import that directly affects the distance of the oil shipments and ship sizes. Due sanctions after the Russia-Ukraine war the oil shipping sector faced issues in day-to day operations and process encompassing obtainability of fuel, cost and increasing the danger which is posed by the cyber risk. The war has created the pressure or burden on the oil shipping industry with the increasing disruption of the supply chain, crew crisis and post congestion. On the other hand, the operations of vessels within the sea were also majorly influenced by the war. Several vessels has been stuck in the ports and from this Russian and Ukraine faced with the ambiguous future. To overcome this challenge, the oil market is adopting the vessel tracking software. Adoption of this innovation is useful because it helps in sharing the functions and principles related to detection of vessels. Additionally, this solution encompasses tracking vessel and provide real-time location data that can be evaluate by the remote organizations.

From the results and findings it has been summarized that, due sanctions of Russia-Ukraine war, the profitability of the oil markets was drastically decline. In 2023 the revenues of the oil and gas was decline because of western sanctions as comparison to 2022. After impose of the sanctions by the EU and well as their partners on the Russia then its financial system loss their competencies to provide the finance for the recovery and growth as well as development. Additionally, the impact of the sanctions on the global market of oil has significant. In the upcoming year, the price cap of the crude oil has an immersive has an immersive impact on the exports of the crude oil of Russian. On the other hand, it has been concluded that after imposition of sanctions there were various changes have been occurred which has significant impact on the freight rates on the oil shipping sector. Usually, the oil sector is depending on only single supplier which can be risk for them in terms of natural disaster, geopolitical events and unforeseen circumstances which leads to vulnerabilities related to supply chain. In addition to this, the Russia fleet has also been deprived with the major services of oil and shipping. The sanctions of United States and Europe pose various complications for the insurer of the shipping.

Recommendation

• There are wide ranges of challenges faced by the oil markets in exporting of the oil to other countries due to Russian-Ukraine war. The oil markets of Russian are only depending on the European nations for the exporting of oil. It has been recommended that, Russian will have to build the relationships with the suppliers of other countries rather than depending on only one supplier. This strategy will be helpful in providing the crude oil and gas at the time of unanticipated circumstances, natural disaster etc (Rioux et al, 2022). Building the relationships with other suppliers will be beneficial for Russian because it helps in exporting the oil within the limited times which leads to attract customers, increase profitability and market share as well as boosting the demand and supply.
• The shipping companies were also faced challenges of stuck the vessels in the port and others due to Russian-Ukraine War. So it has been suggested that, the shipping companies will require to emphasis on making the huge investment in modern technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, Internet of Things (IoT), automation etc. Adoption of all emerging technologies will be useful for the shipping industries because with the help of combined with machine learning and AI devices the helmsman will track the vessels easily. In addition, these contemporary features facilitate the ships to keep on the course and eliminate the accidents which occur due to human errors (Kim et al, 2020). Adoption of modern technologies will be beneficial for the shipping organizations because it facilitates powering of automation process, bettering the procedure of supplier selection, getting real-time data on shipments and anticipate the operational trends and issues. On the other hand, to overcome the challenges relevant to vessels, the shipping organizations will need to focus on using fuel efficient vessels which helps in lower the operating costs and eliminate the fewer carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.
• To mitigate all the challenges that was faced due to imposition of sanctions because of Russia-Ukraine war, the shipping companies will need to emphasis on making investment in the green technologies. Adoption of green technologies will be beneficial for the shipping companies because it enables fuel efficiency and cost savings, compliance with the regulations, improve reputation and enable customer appeal (Mallouppas and Yfantis, 2021). The green technologies will also provide the opportunities to the shipping companies of innovation and market opportunities, admittance to green financing.

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